governor romney has only one chance. he must convince voters during the debates that if the president is is real e -- reelected. things are going to get much worse in america. can he do that? only god knows. top story tonight. let's bring in fox news analyst carl rove who joins us tonight from washington. let's take ohio and florida first. do you believe the polling today? >> no, i don't. and for a very good reason. let's take florida first. got the white board for you. little bit of context here. the biggest poll that we -- the most important thing about a poll is its partisan matrix. the division between republicans, democrats and independents. the biggest poll that we have to understand what the partisan matrix is about are the exit polls. in 2008, florida had three points more democrats than republicans. and in 2004, it had 4 points less democrats than republicans. more republicans than democrats voted in 2004. in 2 point damage to the democrats. the cbs "new york times" poll has 9 points more democrats than republic